First early bet of the Season =)
Formula 1 Season 2008 [Bet 01]
Pick: Ferrari to take the Pole Position
Odds: 1.82 (Ladbrokes + Expect -> customised odds)
Stake: 3 units (Normal Flatbetting stake)
There are a couple reasons why I favor one of the Ferrari drivers to take the pole position this weekend in Melbourne. One thing everyone seems to be agreeing upon at the start of the new season is that for now it will still be Ferrari & Mclaren who will be leading the show. Last season those 2 teams were responsible for an inmpressive domination over BMW, and an even more impressive domination over all the other teams. Every single Pole Position / Race win & Fastest lap during the race were captured by those 2 teams alone. This type of supremacy is hard to break over the winter in a sport like Formula 1 where teams build their new car by improving the old one. Any car besides the Ferrari or Mclaren taking the pole whould be a huge upset. Being down to 2 teams there are many reasons why Ferrari should be a bigger favorite in this spot.
Ferrari won the drivers & construction championship last season which is something which should be given much more credit then most people do.
It was the year after Schumacher & Brawn and at times they weren't really theirselves lacking some reliability, drivers making some mistakes and some circuits not being suited for the radically long-wheelbased F2007. Still they came trough and won it with Raikonnen who didn't even really felt at home in his new team. For this season, the entire team stayed togheter and Kimi is totally adapted to the new car and the team feeling he belongs there ready and motivated to race again. With 2 experianced drivers and the expertise of Micheal Schumacher they have an excellent package to help with the development of the new car, specially after the traction control was taken away. In the past there have been a couple driver switches which made it clear how important it can be to a team. Alonso going from Renault to Mclaren last season was one of those with the performance of the renault going way down and that one of Mclaren going seriously up. Having an experianced driver helping with the development of the car is important in Formula 1. Both Mclaren drivers have only been in Formula 1 for a single year which should give Ferrari the upper hand.
Last season opening race was totally dominated by Ferrari, with Kimi taking the pole and victory for his new team. Being adapted to the team and car by now is ony and extra reason why he should perform even better. Hamilton was the revelation last season and now has to comfirm which is always much more difficult and he is known to fail under real pressure. Both Mclaren drivers also only have 1 year experiance on the track, wich is a lot less compared to both Ferrari drivers. Kovalainen had a really bad opening race last year where he wanted to go to fast which caused a lot of driving mistakes, don't think he will make that mistake again and drive a bit more controlled.
During the winter tests Ferrari seemed to be very fast overall and in all interviews they sound extremely confident. Mclaren seemed to be giving an answer to this during the latest test sessions in Barcelona on which Felippe Massa responded "When your rivals are testing for qualifying conditions, it is obvious that they will be quicker than you if you are testing for the races, We did qualifying testing the previous week, and I beat the track record. In Australia we will understand (the real situation), for sure"
I believe there is a big chance that Ferrari will once again dominate the 1st Grand Prix weekend of the season and take the pole. With both drivers having proven to be capable to drive the fastest lap they should have at least 62% to take the Pole Position. The big asian books give around 2.50 for kimi to take the pole. Expekt and Ladbrokes are currently still offering nice prices. A lot of times in Formula 1 bets I will make custom odds combining different bookmakers (better possible bets, higer odds + higher limits). Taking this one early because if what I believe turns out to be right odds will fall if ferrari is fast during the Practice sessions on the first race day.
1.32 Units on Massa to take the Pole @ 4.15 (Expekt) (4.00 available bluesq, boyle, coral)
1.68 Units on Raikkonen to take the Pole @ 3.25 (Ladbrokes / bluesq)
So 3 Units on Ferrari to take the Pole Position @ 1.82
Taking Kimi to take the pole & No bet if it's Massa is also an option
But we will be back!
